Russia talks tough but does not want war with NATO, officials say

Western officials believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to avoid a direct military confrontation with Nato, despite increasingly hostile rhetoric from Moscow.

Hostile words, but not action

Over the past week, Russia has made threats against the UK and other Nato allies over their support for Ukraine. Russian officials warned that UK forces could be targeted and that British weapons factories could be hit.

However, Western officials say these threats are "nothing new". They believe the combative language is a classic case of Russia using "rhetoric to exploit fears". One official said: "Our assessment is Putin wants to avoid a direct confrontation with Nato".

Why the tough talk?

Officials suggest the hostile rhetoric reflects growing pressure on Putin at home. Russian forces are making slow and costly gains in Ukraine. Ukraine has also carried out long-range strikes deep inside Russia, hitting oil refineries and causing fuel shortages.

Russia is also suffering heavy casualties. Officials say Russia is losing 6,000 more soldiers each month than it can recruit.

The real danger: hybrid activity

While Russia wants to avoid a direct war with Nato, officials warn that Moscow will likely continue its "hybrid activity". This includes cyber-attacks, sabotage, and even assassination attempts.

Russia is suspected of being behind recent drone incidents in several Nato countries. Earlier this month, a drone with explosives reached a runway at Leipzig airport in Germany, a key hub for military equipment to Ukraine.

Risk of miscalculation

Officials warn that Russia's hybrid strategy carries a risk of "miscalculation" that could accidentally trigger a military confrontation. One official said: "We cannot rule out the risk of miscalculation".

Still, officials say Nato allies should remain calm but not complacent. US President Donald Trump said this week that he believes Putin is "not going to attack a Nato territory".